Iran–Israel tensions keeping oil risk premium elevated
Strait of Hormuz traffic remains under watch. Any escalation could spike Brent above $90, pressuring India's import bill and CAD.
Watch: ONGC, Oil India rally on crude spikes. Aviation stocks (IndiGo) face margin pressure. Rupee depreciation risk.
US tariff pause opens window for India — but China overhang remains
India positioned as alternate supply chain hub. Electronics PLI beneficiaries could see order flows accelerate if US-China trade stays cold.
Watch: Dixon Technologies, Kaynes, Tata Elxsi. Textile exporters also benefit from China+1 pivot.
RBI rate cut cycle begins — what it means for equities and debt
With inflation cooling to ~4%, RBI has room to cut. Rate-sensitive sectors stand to benefit as cost of capital falls across the board.
Watch: Banking stocks (HDFC Bank, Kotak), Real Estate (Godrej Props, DLF). Duration play via long-term gilt funds.
Russia–Ukraine ceasefire talks: gas markets watching closely
Any peace deal could ease European energy prices and free up capital from defense budgets. Global commodities would reprice quickly.
Watch: Indian metals & steel exporters benefit from Europe reconstruction demand. NMDC, Tata Steel, JSW Steel.
Budget capex push: ₹11L crore in infra outlay — who benefits?
Government's continued infrastructure focus supports roads, railways, and defence manufacturing. Order books of capital goods companies swelling.
Watch: L&T, ABB India, Siemens, Bharat Electronics, HAL. Capital goods sector in a multi-year upcycle.
AI infrastructure boom driving semiconductor demand — India's IT play
NVIDIA, TSMC supply chains stretched. India's IT majors riding the AI services wave as US tech cos ramp up AI workloads.
Watch: TCS, Infosys, Persistent Systems leading AI services. Also: data centre REITs and power infra (Adani Green, NTPC).